2009/2010 Forecast Verification


See the Forecast for comparision

Locations used for Data Verification.

For Philadelpia/South Jersey: station used is Philadelphia International Airport. 
For the Washington D.C and surrounding suburbs, will use both Dulles and Regan International Airport

Summary

This was certainly a winter to remember for the Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia area. The record amount of snowfall that fell is something that we may never see again happen in our lifetimes. It was incredible that two historic snowstorms occured in one season. Not only that, we saw two, 12"+ snow events within a week of each other and 4 snow events in the span of 12 days from January 30th to February 10th. Records both on a monthly and seasonal scale were broken and some shattered. We saw a winter dominanted by a moderate El Nino and highly negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. The Artic Oscillation had its most negative monthly value ever in February and the same for the seasonal value(Dec to March). Records go back to 1950. This also caused Canada to see its warmiest and driest winter on record. There is really no analog to compare this season. However, if there was one that is even remotely close, it would be the 1957/1958 season. There is only one other account for what happened in February and only for the Philadelphia area. It happened back in 1717. During that winter, there was a three week span From February 27th to March 9th where 3 to 5 feet of snow fell from Philadlelphia to Boston. See Jeff Master's WeatherUnderground Blog for February 17th, 2010.

Something else must have caused the record amounts of snowfall. Could the eruption of Mt. Redoubt in Alaska during March of last year have been a contributing factor for the record snowfall? There is some evidence that high-latitude volcanic eruptions can cause strong blocking episdoes in the Arctic regions and a greatly increased snowfall threat for parts of Eastern Untied States. A few publications have been written about this showing past examples and how eruptions across the globe can greatly affect the weather and climate in certain areas.

Here is an image of the December to February Sea-Level Pressure anomalies accross the Northern Hemisphere. There are some features that clearly stand out in this graphic. The large area of negative anomalies in the North Pacific show the southward displacement of the Aleutin Low. The location is also a feature seen for a neutral to positive PDO pattern. There was also a large area of negative anomalies in the North Ceneral Atlantic Ocean showing the southward displacement of the Icelandic Low(highly negative NAO pattern). Lastly, there was the large area of well above normal anomalies across the Artic Ocean and Greenland.(highly negative AO pattern)

Image Courtesy of the Earth System Research Laboratory




Total Seasonal Snowfall

Philadelphia/South Jersey - 78.7 inches

Washington, D.C./Surrounding suburbs - Regan: 56.1 inches; Dulles: 73.2 inches



Monthly Analysis

Washington, D.C. and Surrounding Suburbs

December

January

February

March



Philadelphia/South Jersey

December

January

February

March


Maps